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Predicted impact of HIV on PNG in 2025

Summary

• A generalised epidemic with over 500,000 people living with HIV, 300,000 adult deaths
• 117,000 children to lose their mothers to AIDS
• The workforce will be reduced by 13% and annual GDP growth rate reduced by 1.3%
• The health sector will be severely impacted, with over 70% of medical beds occupied by people with AIDS.

Macroeconomic impact

By 2025, the projected growth of HIV will cause a reduction in PNG's annual GDP of 1.3%.

Workforce

Close to 13% of the workforce could be lost by 2025. This loss of the productive workforce equates to AUD$1.5 billion. This figure does not take into account lost productivity through the loss of subsequent generations of workers, which would increase the cost to the economy.

Reduction in the size of workforce in PNG

• 2010 - 3.9%
• 2015 - 6.2%
• 2025 - 13.5%

Agricultural sector

The economic impact of HIV on the agricultural sector will be felt through the substantial loss of human capital. 71% of adults in the labour force are employed in fishing or agriculture, with most of these (67.4%) in subsistence agriculture.

By 2010, rural adult deaths are projected to reach over 3000 per year. By 2025, this will climb to 20,000 deaths per year. Related to this mortality rate is the loss of productivity of thousands of land plots and market gardens ordinarily producing food for consumption and cash.

Demographic impact

By 2010, nearly 60,000 people will have died from causes related to AIDS, rising to over 400,000 by 2025. Most of these deaths will occur in the 15-49 age group.

Maternal orphans

The large numbers of people of child-rearing age who die as a result of AIDS will leave behind many orphans. In 2010, there will be close to 20,000 maternal orphans, rising to 117,000 in 2025.

Health Sector

• By 2025: The estimated total cost of HIV care, support and treatment will reach $85 million per annum
• Up to $57 million per annum will be required for the cost of opportunistic treatment, health care and hospital admissions
• $28.6 million per annum will be required for the cost of antiretroviral drugs (even with limited availability)
• There will be a low doctor-to-HIV/AIDS patient ratio (1:260) due to AIDS-related losses in the medical sector. It is estimated the sector will lose 16 doctors and 170 nurses to AIDS
• Over 70% of hospital beds will be filled by patients with AIDS.

HIV prevention

By 2025, $28.5 million per annum will be required for HIV prevention, an increase of $17 million. In 2005, $11.5 million was spent on HIV prevention activities.

Source, Impacts of HIV/ AIDS 2005 - 2025 in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and East Timor, http://www.ausaid.gov.au/publications/pdf/impacts_hiv.pdf

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